Reports & Analysis
The Economic Value of Eliminating Cancer
The Challenge
Cancer remains the second-leading cause of death in the United States, and the CDC projects it will overtake heart disease as the leading cause of premature mortality by 2030. Despite more than 50 years of progress since the 1971 "War on Cancer," treatment advances for cancer have lagged behind heart disease, where death rates have fallen twice as fast. This report puts a dollar figure on what continued investment in cancer innovation could actually be worth.
What the Evidence Shows
Using federal cost-benefit valuation methods, the report models the health, productivity, and fiscal value of eliminating cancer mortality between 2030 and 2064.
$30.7M
Cancer deaths projected in the U.S. between 2030 and 2064 under the status quo — a mortality burden of nearly 380 million life-years, equivalent to roughly 4.9 million full lives lost.
$187T
Total estimated economic value of eliminating cancer mortality over the 35-year period, combining monetized longevity gains, added labor productivity, and increased tax revenue — about $15,385 per American per year.
5x–10x
Estimated internal rate of return on eliminating cancer mortality, if treated as an R&D investment, based on benchmarked program costs of $500 billion to $900 billion.
The Real Question
Not whether curing cancer is worthwhile in the abstract — but whether current policy is treating cancer innovation as the extraordinarily high-return investment the numbers suggest it is, or whether policies like drug price controls are discouraging the very research this value depends on.
Bottom Line
Even a partial success — an 80% reduction in cancer mortality over 20 years, short of full elimination — would capture roughly 70% of the total value, or about $130 trillion. The report argues the long-run returns to cancer innovation are large enough that policies restricting pharmaceutical pricing or R&D incentives risk forfeiting benefits far larger than any short-term savings.
Source: Stephen Moore and Tomas J. Philipson, "The Economic Value of Eliminating Cancer," Unleash Prosperity Now, February 2026. Methodology draws on Philipson et al. (2023) federal Value of a Life Year estimates, U.N. World Population Prospects (2024), and CBO wage growth projections.