A new paper from Stephen Moore and E.J. Antoni finds that exempting USMCA-compliant trucks and parts from Section 232 and 301 tariffs could support 15,000–35,000 North American jobs.

• Today’s tariffs have it backwards. The truck makers that invested most heavily in North American production now face higher tariff costs than supply chains that rely more on Chinese parts. That’s the opposite of what trade policy should reward.

• It’s about to get worse. On January 1, 2027, tariffs on Canadian trucks and parts are scheduled to rise to 50%. For the first time, they will also hit parts that fully comply with USMCA, which removes the one protection North American production still had.

• This industry is too important to get wrong. Heavy-duty trucks support about 1.5 million North American jobs and carry about 70% of U.S. freight by weight. They’re also dual-use assets for defense logistics.

• Small cost gaps decide big outcomes. Four manufacturers build almost every Class 8 truck in America, so a cost difference of just 1–2% can shift market share, investment, and jobs.

• The fix already exists. USMCA defines what counts as North American content. Exempting compliant goods is rule-based, predictable, and legally durable after the Supreme Court’s Learning Resources decision.

• Relief beats new restrictions. The paper models four options. A USMCA exemption produces the strongest result, +15K to +35K jobs. A broad new Section 301 tariff at 25% comes out between −3K and +5K, and the status quo costs 5K to 12K jobs.

• It’s a stronger national security posture. It puts tariffs where they belong, on inputs from countries of concern, and keeps them off allies and neighbors.

• Fleets and freight win too. Lower production costs mean more competitive truck prices for the fleet operators who move America’s goods.